The Kansas City Chiefs problems against the point spread are, by now, legendary. After failing to cover in nine of their last 11 games in 2020-21 (including the playoffs), this offensive powerhouse is now 1-4 ATS in the 2021 regular season.
So, what does that mean for Virginia sports betting and the Washington Football Team in its home game Sunday against the Chiefs?
Probably, bet the over.
In Chiefs games so far in 2021, the over has hit in four of five games and the lone under was by a single point. The WFT is also 1-4 ATS but the over is also 4-1, including the last four in a row. And it hasn’t been close in those WFT games, either.
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The Virginia gambling oddsmakers have the Chiefs (2-3 in the AFC West) a 7-point favorite over WFT (2-3 in the NFC East).
Over-Under is High
The over-under is 55.5, which is a high number. But the Chiefs, regardless of their record, are still scoring about 31 points a game, and the Redskins are giving up about 31 points a game. And Washington, for its part, is scoring about 25 points a game.
The early betting has been leaning on Kansas City by a wide margin. Despite the Chiefs ATS track record, 86% of the spread money is on Kansas City (-7), and 85% of the money line cash is on the Chiefs (-310).
The high over-under has sobered the betting here with a 55% lean on the over.
Chiefs Have More Firepower
If this is a battle of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes versus Washington’s Taylor Heinicke, well, that’s hardly a fair fight, as much as Heinicke has battled to keep WFT afloat. Kansas City’s defense has been wretched but the Chiefs only have to stop one guy, WFT wide receiver Terry McLaurin.
Washington’s best hope is to keep the game close and rely on its running game to control the clock. Meanwhile, Mahomes has a couple of Pro Bowl targets, WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce, who can bust the game open and Darrel Williams is an adequate RB replacement for the injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Who Will Win?
Prediction: The Chiefs should be a moneyline lock but until they prove they can cover a spread, it’s impossible to put any money on them when they’re giving a full touchdown.
Yet, they do have Mahomes-Hill-Kelce so it’s impossible to bet against them ATS. That leaves Kansas City on the moneyline and the over. Chiefs 32, WFT 27.
