Washington Commanders 2024 Win Total: Trends of 6.5 Win Total Teams

It has been four years since the Washington Commanders last tasted the NFL playoffs. The franchise has finished.500 or worse in the past seven seasons, capped by last year’s 4-13 finish that was a losing proposition for backers at Virginia sportsbooks.

For the 2024 NFL season, the Commanders have a win total (over/under) set at 6.5 wins (-120 over) with DraftKings. BetVirginia.com used SportsReference.com to figure out all teams with a 6.5-win total line in the past 10 NFL seasons and how they performed.

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Season Performance Of 6.5 Win Total NFL Teams

Situation	Number of Teams	Percentage*
Under 6.5 Wins	10 of 27	37.0%
Over 6.5 Wins	17 of 27	63.0%
Make NFL Playoffs	8 of 27	29.6%
Make Divisional Round	5 of 27	18.5%
Make Conference Championship	2 of 27	7.4%
Make Super Bowl	1 of 27	3.7%
Win Super Bowl	0 of 27	0.0%

*Rounded to nearest whole number

2024 Washington Commanders Prospectus

With a first-round pick under center and a new coaching staff in the nation’s capital, there’s hope that the Commanders can turn a corner this fall, despite their long odds at DraftKings Virginia Sportsbook. Washington opens its 2024 NFL regular season on Sept. 8 with a game at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

With a preseason win total over/under of 6.5 and preseason Super Bowl odds of +15000 (ranking 29th out of 32 teams) at FanDuel Virginia Sportsbook, it’s certainly not looking like No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are set up for overnight success this season.

Trends For 6.5-Win Teams

We found that, since the 2014 season, 27 teams entered the NFL regular season with a 6.5 over/under win total. Of those teams, 10 went on to win seven or more contests (37%) and eight (or 29.6%) made the postseason that year.

Washington does not have to look far in the rearview for teams that made the postseason in such a situation. Last season, the Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both reached the playoffs after opening the season with an over/under of 6.5 wins at Virginia sports betting apps.

To date, only one team (the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals) reached the Super Bowl in such seasons. Two (the 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars and those ‘21 Bengals) made the Conference Championship round. Here is a full list:

2023 Texans – Lost in Divisional

2023 Bucs – Lost in Divisional

2022 Jags – Lost in Divisional

2021 Bengals – Lost in Super Bowl

2017 Jags – Lost in Conference Champ

This fall, the Commanders and folks wagering on them by using Virginia sports betting promos will look to Houston and Tampa Bay as examples of how a turnaround is possible. We will see if Washington becomes the latest overnight success story in the 32-team league after years of futility in D.C.

USA Today photo by Geoff Burke

Author

Christopher Boan

@cgboan

Christopher Boan has been covering sports and sports betting for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.