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Jim Tomlin has nearly 30 years of experience in journalism, having worked at such publications as the Tampa Bay Times, FanRag, Saturdays Down South and Saturday Tradition. He is a contributing writer and editor for BetVirginia.com.
Jayden Daniels Trends: How QBs Fare Season After Winning Offensive Rookie of the Year
In February, Jayden Daniels was named Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year, the 11th quarterback to earn that honor since 2004, after he helped Washington Commanders playoff odds pay off and led the team to the NFC Championship Game.
What can we expect for an encore? Can Daniels match or exceed his rookie numbers as he heads into his second NFL campaign? BetVirginia.com looked at how the 10 most recent quarterbacks did after they won the OROY award, spanning two decades.
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How QBs Followed Up After Winning Offensive Rookie of the Year
QB, Award year | Team | Year 2 Stats |
CJ Stroud, 2023 | Houston | 336-for-532, 3,727 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT |
Justin Herbert, 2020 | LA Chargers | 443-for-672, 5,014 yards, 38 TD, 15 INT |
Kyler Murray, 2019 | Arizona | 375-for-558, 3,971 yards, 26 TD, 12 INT |
Dak Prescott, 2016 | Dallas | 308-for-490, 3,324 yards, 22 TD, 13 INT |
Robert Griffin III, 2012 | Washington | 274-for-456, 3,203 yards, 16 TD, 12 INT |
Cam Newton, 2011 | Carolina | 280-for-485, 3,869 yards, 19 TD, 12 INT |
Sam Bradford, 2010 | StL Rams | 191-for-357, 2,164 yards, 6 TD, 6 INT |
Matt Ryan, 2008 | Atlanta | 263-for-451, 2,916 yards, 22 TD, 14 INT |
Vince Young, 2006 | Tennessee | 238-for-382, 2,546 yards, 9 TD, 17 INT |
Ben Roethlisberger, 2004 | Pittsburgh | 168-for-268, 2,385 yards, 17 TD, 9 INT |
Average | ---- | 288-for-465, 3,312 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT |
Since 2004, the 10 quarterbacks who were voted as Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year had varying degrees of success or failure in their second season.
For Virginia sports betting, the general trend that emerged from our research is this: A regression to the mean is normal in the season after a QB earns the top honor for offensive rookies.
Virginia Trends for Wagering on Daniels
The average season by a starter in his season following the OROY honor doesn’t look too bad: More than 3,300 yards passing, a 61.8% completion rate and 20 touchdowns.
But consider that eight of the 10 quarterbacks we researched had a decline in completion percentage between Year 1 and Year 2. Six of them had fewer yards passing in their sophomore campaigns, six had fewer touchdown passes and six threw more interceptions than in their rookie seasons.
Operators offering top Virginia sportsbook promo codes already have posted props on the 2025-26 NFL season, several months ahead of time.
Before you wager on Daniels to take a leap forward next season, here’s one more point to ponder: Five of the quarterbacks who won Offensive Rookie of the Year since 2004 were named to the Pro Bowl that season. None of them made it again in Year 2. And none of these 10 OROY winners came anywhere a Most Valuable Player award in Year 2, either.
Perhaps Daniels, the former Heisman Trophy winner at LSU, will buck the trend. But bettors might want to think about whether they want to jump on the +1000 odds at Caesars VA Sportsbook on Daniels to win MVP next season.
Highlights, Lowlights In Year 2 For OROY Winners
Since 2004, the best performance in Year 2 for a quarterback coming off OROY honors was by Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers in 2021. His completion percentage slipped a bit, from 66.6% to 65.9%, and he had 15 interceptions compared to 10 as a rookie in 2020. But Herbert still stood out in Year 2. He passed for 5,014 yards, second in the league and the 15th best single-season total ever, as he led L.A. to a two-win improvement.
Arizona’s Kyler Murray had a stellar showing in 2020, his second season, improving in every major statistical category and making the Pro Bowl. Like Herbert, he helped the Cardinals improve, from a 5-10-1 record in his OROY year to 8-8 in Year 2. Murray and Herbert were the only players on this list to make the Pro Bowl in Year 2 after both missed out as rookies.
For next season, bet365 Virginia Sportsbook has Herbert with +1600 odds to win MVP and Murray is at +5000.
One of the least impressive statistical seasons on this list was by Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2005. But he earned one distinction in Year 2 that none of the others did – in fact, nobody else on this list has done it in their careers – because his team won the Super Bowl that season.
Washington History Offers Cautionary Tale
One case is fuel for nightmares among Washington NFL fans with long memories: Robert Griffin III, the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2012. That season, he passed for 3,200 yards and 20 touchdowns, plus he ran for 815 yards and seven scores.
Late that season, Griffin sprained an LCL in his knee but missed only one game. Still wearing a knee brace, he suffered a much worse injury in a playoff game against the Seattle Seahawks, sending RGIII down a path that likely drastically shortened his NFL career. Another knee injury affected his second season in 2013 and a dislocated ankle early in the 2014 season all but ended his tenure in Washington after just three seasons.
Griffin hung on as a backup for the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens until 2020, but he never again approached his exciting form as a rookie.
See Washington Commanders 2025 NFL draft odds at BetVirginia.com for predictions of whether the team will give Daniels more help on offense or if they shore up the defense instead.
USA Today photo by Kirby Lee
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