College Football Hot Seat: Odds For Next CBF Head Coach Fired

Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

  • 👀Coaching turnover comes earlier and earlier each college football season. Who is on the hot seat already?
  • 📈Below, a team of college football experts reveal our exclusive odds to be the first head coach fired this season.
  • 🏈Florida coach Billy Napier is still the favorite to receive his walking papers, followed by a few other familiar faces.

We’re officially a week into the 2024 college football season across Virginia sportsbooks, with some teams launching their CFP dreams while others faceplanted on the field.  

While certain CFB teams like the Georgia Bulldogs (+280), Ohio State Buckeyes (+400), Oregon Ducks and Texas Longhorns (+750 each) and Alabama Crimson Tide (+1200) all grew their championship potential according to the team at DraftKings Sportsbook, others weren’t quite as lucky.  

Between flops like the Florida Gators, who are staring down the barrel of a $26.7 million buyout if they move on from third-year head coach Billy Napier after Saturday’s 41-17 home debacle against Miami, and teams like the Arkansas Razorbacks, Baylor Bears and California Golden Bears, there’s no shortage of head coaching candidates to get the ax first in 2024.  

With that in mind, BetVirginia.com broke down some hypothetical odds on which CFB head coach will be the first one fired this fall, with frontrunners like Napier and Sam Pittman out of Arkansas leading the way after Week 1.  

See our Virginia college football betting guide for more info.

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Next CFB Coach Fired Odds in 2024

Coach 

Team 

Odds 

Percent Chance 

Billy Napier 

Florida 

+300 

25.0% 

Sam Pittman 

Arkansas 

+600 

14.3% 

Dave Aranda 

Baylor 

+600 

14.3% 

Justin Wilcox 

California 

+1000 

9.1% 

Scott Satterfield 

Cincinnati 

+1250 

7.4% 

Brent Pry 

Virginia Tech 

+1250 

7.4% 

Mike Norvell 

Florida State 

+1500 

6.3% 

The Field 

+600 

14.3% 

*Only includes the Power 4 conferences.

Odds provided by BetVirginia.com and not available at Virginia betting apps.

Gators' Billy Napier Among College Football's Hot Seat

Right now, it’s hard to see how Napier comes back from the Gators’ 24-point faceplant in the Swamp against the Hurricanes, regardless of how large his buyout is at the moment, which is why we list him as our top pick to get fired first, at +300.  The Gators are winless since last October, when they beat the South Carolina Gamecocks on Oct. 14, 2023, illustrating how far the program has fallen from its 21st century heyday under Urban Meyer, who led UF to two national titles in three years between 2006 and 2008.  

Other CFB frontrunners to get that golden parachute include Pittman and Baylor’s Dave Aranda, who are co-listed at +600, with both coaches likely due whopping buyout totals of their own right should the Razorbacks and Bears’ leadership teams choose to pull the plug on their respective runs in Fayetteville and Waco this fall.  

Mike Norvell's Seat Hotter Following BC Loss

Longshots include Justin Wilcox of Cal at +1000, though UC-Berkeley leadership has never been known for speedy resolutions when it comes to hiring and firing decisions, which could buy the veteran head coach time in the East Bay, while Scott Satterfield of Cincinnati and Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry (+1250 each) and FSU’s Mike Norvell (+1500) round out the list of head coaches most likely to get fired after Week 1.  

For now, our nation turns its lonely eyes towards Gainesville to see if UF throws up the white flag and opts to move on from the school’s embattled head football coach, as Florida leads the nation in terms of schools most likely to fire their football leaders in 2024.   

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Author

Christopher Boan

Christopher Boan has been covering sports and sports betting for more than seven years, including stops at ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.

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